In the NFL, 3 seasons is generally considered a fair amount of time for Head Coaches to turn a franchise around. This isn’t always the case, though. Every franchise is different and so is every job. For example: Robert Saleh taking on the 3-14 Tennessee Titans Head Coaching job is different, and comes with different expectations, than Mike McCarthy taking on the 10-7 Pittsburgh Steelers’ job. The Titans just want to improve on being the 4th worst team in the NFL. The Steelers, however, despite their QB situation being in limbo, will expect to see playoff football almost instantly.
The 3-year-rule doesn’t officially exist, and it certainly doesn’t apply to everyone. But, barring anything catastrophic, or continued extemely poor performances in year two – it’s an unwritten guideline that seems to be pretty fair.
Year one, new Head Coaches are typically dealing with a subpar roster of players that aren’t theirs. That year is about beginning to clear out the players that don’t fit, and establishing their own culture. Year two, they start to get their own players through the door. 2 drafts, 2 free agencies, and a culture that has been implemented. It goes without saying that improvements should be seen year-on-year, but no miraculous runs are generally expected. Just improvements. Then, by year 3, a Head Coach now has a roster that’s completely theirs. They have 3 drafts under their belt, 3 free agencies, and again, an implemented culture.
It can often feel like many coaches get a much shorter rope. After one year in the job, the Jets’ Aaron Glenn is the bookies favourite to end up unemployed at some point between now and the conclusion of the 2026 season. Some franchises are notoriously impatient, while some understand the need for a coach to establish themselves. With that being said, how did the 2023 Head Coaching hires turn out? And is there any credence to the 3-year-rule?
Compared to recent years, 2023 now seems like a light-cycle with only 5 Head Coaching changes. Compare that to the off-season we’ve just had where 10 different franchises have changed their Head Coach. There were 7 changes in 2025, and 8 in 2024, to help you put that in perspective.
Arizona Cardinals – Jonathan Gannon
It feels like it was just yesterday that the awkward videos of Jonathan Gannon greeting Cardinals players on his first day circulated. Who can forget when he asked a room full of professional athletes if they took the bus to the facility? It seemed like he was doomed from the get-go. Gannon, however, while seemingly awkward, was considered one of the brighest defensive minds when the Cardinals brought him in.
In his first season, Gannon led the Cardinals to a 4-13 regular season record. It was the same record as their 2022 season. However, as mentioned above, first year leniancy does come into effect. The highlight of that season would be their week 17 win over Gannon’s former employer and previous season’s Super Bowl runners-up – the Philidelphia Eagles.
The second season in Arizona – as tends to be the case – brought much more success. A 4-game win streak in the middle of the season saw them enter their week 11 bye at 6-4. However, a 2-5 stretch after the bye week ended their season 8-9, and 3rd in the NFC West.
With thanks to doubling their win-total in 2025, many people (including myself) saw the Cardinals as a sneaky tip to make the playoffs. Alas, it wasn’t to be, and despite a 2-0 start to the season, they fell to 3-14. Among those losses was the rather embarassing and comical loss to the Tennessee Titans. A game that featured Kyler Murray being taken out for concussion protocol after being hit in the face with a snapped ball, a Cam Ward interception that ended up a Titans touchdown and Demarcado’s 71-yard run that was fumbled at the goalline and returned for a touchback to Tennessee. A 5-loss streak before their bye week, and a 9-loss streak after their bye was enough to send Gannon packing.
Result: Fired after 3 seasons
Carolina Panthers – Frank Reich
Despite being fired by the Colts in the November, the Panthers hired Frank Reich as the man to take their franchise forward. Within 6 weeks, the team had traded WR D.J Moore (and 2 first-round picks) to the Chicago Bears, in turn receiving the #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. With that pick, they took Alabama’s Bryce Young.
Despite having the #1 overall pick on the roster, the Panthers went 2-15. To this day, it’s the worst record of any team in the 17-game era. The offense was 29th in the league in sacks allowed, and Bryce Young had a horrid start to his NFL career. Reich was fired after 11-games and a 1-10 record at the helm in Carolina. Reich is the first Head Coach in history to be fired miday through back-to-back seasons. It’s also the 4th shortest tenure of any HC in history.
Result: Fired after 11 games
Denver Broncos – Sean Payton
Sean Payton retired after the 2021 season following a 16-year tenure with the New Orleans Saints. He spent a year with FOX as an analyst for the broadcaster, before returning to the NFL with the Broncos. The roster already had some fantastic talent, just needing a Head Coach to really put it together.
The Broncos got off to a horrible start under Payton, though. They lost their first 3 games, including a 70-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Which, should’ve been a fireable offence in it’s own right. Despite a 1-5 start to the season, they did claw it back to an 8-9 finish. That improvement earned Payton the opportunity to go again in 2024.
2024 was to be a pivotal year for Payton at the Broncos. They drafted QB Bo Nix 12th overall in a move that was considered to be a huge reach. Elsewhere in the division, Jim Harbaugh took the vacant job at the Chargers. The Broncos went 10-7, finished 3rd in the AFC West, but still made the playoffs for the first time since Super Bowl 50. They lost in the Wildcard Round to the Buffalo Bills, but again, the improvement kept Payton in the building.
His third year proved to be the most successful to date. Another slightly shaky start to the season (there’s a theme emerging here) the Broncos went 1-2 to start their campaign. However, they wouldn’t lose another game until week 16 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their only other loss for the remainder of the regular season. The regular season finished 14-3, 1st in the AFC West and sitting as the #1 seed in the AFC. They even saw playoff success too. This time, they welcomed the Buffalo Bills to Mile High, scraping past them in OT during the Divisional Round. Unfortunately for the Broncos, starting QB Bo Nix was injured in the final drive of the game. Bringing them to a snowy showdown at Mile High, with a resurgent New England Patriots, which they lost.
I shouldn’t have to tell you, but taking your team to a single-score loss short of a Super Bowl tends to earn you the right to keep your job.
Result: Still Head Coach of the Broncos
Houston Texans – DeMeco Ryans
With the 33rd pick of the 2006 Draft, the Houston Texans select: DeMeco Ryans, Linebacker, Alabama… Wait, no. Wrong one.
Former 33rd overall pick to the Houston Texans, DeMeco Ryans became the 3rd head coach in 3 years for the franchise. After a 4-13 season for David Culley, and a 3-13-1 season for Lovie Smith, the Texans were desparate for some improvement. Ryans drafted C.J Stroud with the 2nd overall pick in that draft. Despite an 0-2 start to the season, the Texans finished 10-7, 1st in the AFC South and earned a home playoff berth. Ryans and Stroud became only the 5th rookie QB & HC duo to make the playoffs in NFL history. They beat the Browns convincingly at home in the wildcard, before bowing out on the road to the Ravens in the Divisional round.
Their second season followed a pretty similar pattern. After a solid 5-1 start to the season, they finished the rest of the season 5-6. Finishing 10-7 and atop of the AFC South again. Their playoff berth also went pretty much the same way. A convincing win over the Chargers in the wildcard round, but a loss to the Chiefs in the divisional sent them home.
Their 2025 campaign started 0-3, and didn’t look to get a whole lot better initially, finding themselves 3-5 following a week 9 loss to the Broncos. They did, however, follow that first half of the season with a 9-game winning streak in the second half. That was enough to give them their best regular season record under Ryans (12-5), but not enough to catch up to the Jacksonville Jaguars who finshed 13-4 and took the AFC South. This meant that while they did make the playoffs, for the first time under DeMeco Ryans, they did not have a home tie in the Wildcard Round. This didn’t phase the Texans as they travelled to Pittsburgh and knocked the Aaron Rodgers-led Steelers out. They ended up losing in the Divisional game to the eventual AFC Champions, the New England Patriots.
Result: Still Head Coach of the Texans
Indianapolis Colts – Shane Steichen
The Colts, fresh-off a 4-12-1 season under Frank Reich, turned their attention to Eagles offensive coordinatr Shane Steichen. They took QB Anthony Richardson with the 4th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Richardson was placed on Injured Reserve after 4 games, leaving the starting job open to Gardner Minshew. Despite the disruption, the Colts went 9-8 on the season, just one game short of winning the AFC South. They went into week 18 at 9-7, facing a 9-7 Houston Texans side, but lost by 4 points ath home.
Having more than doubled their win total from the previous year, Steichen returned for 2024, but couldn’t capitalise or really improve on the previous year. Anthony Richardson failed to impress throughout the season, leading Steichen to bench him for 2 games and make Flacco the starter instead. Richardson also had 4 games missed with injuries.
Steichen returned for a 3rd season, bringing in former Giants QB Daniel Jones to be the starter ahead of Anthony Richardson. The Colts had a great start to the season, starting 7-1 and leading the AFC. They entered their week 11 bye 8-2, following an OT win over the Falcons in Germany. Daniel Jones was playing well and Jonathan Taylor was arguably the best running back in the league. Unfortunately for the Colts, following their bye, they went on a 7-game losing streak and ended the season 8-9.
Result: Still Head Coach of the Colts
The Results
This is a really interesting group to look at in the context of Head Coaching lifecycles. Of the 5 HCs hired in the cycle, 3 of them still remain in the job. All of which have seen slightly different levels of success. Payton has taken the Broncos to the AFC Championship, and barring a Bo Nix injury – could have been in the Super Bowl. DeMeco Ryans has won 2/3 AFC South titles, won 3/6 playoff games. Shane Steichen is still yet to make the playoffs, but sits 1 game below .500.
2 of the Head Coaches have been fired. One was given the full 3 years, the other wasn’t even given a full season. Even with the ‘3 Year Rule’, the Panthers were justified in firing Reich. That 2023 Panthers team was BAD. Jonathan Gannon, however, was an excellent example of the 3-year-rule. Despite the awkwardness, they let him have his first year to get his teeth into the role, establish his culture and start to make his team. Second year, they saw the improvements and doubled their win-total. Third year, with a team that’s his and fully established as Head Coach, they couldn’t make it work.
The 3 year rule works, in my opinion. But, it isn’t a given and never should be. You still have to not be a disaster in year one, and still have to see improvement in year two. This also doesn’t mean that if you survive year 3, you’re in the clear. Plenty of Head Coaches are granted a 4th year due to a key injury, or something else going wrong. Passing the three years generally, in my opinion, means you have earned the right to some trust and security for the foreseeable. You are not then defined by one bad season alone.
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